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Kyle Pitts

Kyle Pitts Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 9

Atlanta Falcons vs Los Angeles Chargers

Kyle Pitts Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+269/-451).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -375 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -451.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • Kyle Pitts has been a key part of his team's passing attack near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 26.3% this year, which ranks him in the 97th percentile among tight ends.
  • Kyle Pitts's 57.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit higher this year than it was last year at 49.9.
  • Kyle Pitts grades out in the 81st percentile among tight ends when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging a terrific 0.29 per game.
  • The Atlanta Falcons have faced a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

  • THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons offense to be the 3rd-worst paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 30.10 seconds per play.
  • Kyle Pitts has posted significantly fewer air yards this year (58.0 per game) than he did last year (70.0 per game).
  • Kyle Pitts's sure-handedness have diminished this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 62.0% to 58.0%.
  • The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has surrendered the 10th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (67.7%) vs. TEs this year (67.7%).
  • The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers rank as the 10th-best LB corps in the league this year in pass coverage.

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