Kyle Pitts Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Kyle Pitts

NFL · Player Props

Kyle Pitts

TE · Atlanta Falcons

Receiving TD

Atlanta Falcons vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 5:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Kyle Pitts Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+269/-451).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -375 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -451.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Kyle Pitts has been a key part of his team's passing attack near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 26.3% this year, which ranks him in the 97th percentile among tight ends.
Kyle Pitts's 57.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit higher this year than it was last year at 49.9.
Kyle Pitts grades out in the 81st percentile among tight ends when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging a terrific 0.29 per game.
The Atlanta Falcons have faced a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons offense to be the 3rd-worst paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 30.10 seconds per play.
Kyle Pitts has posted significantly fewer air yards this year (58.0 per game) than he did last year (70.0 per game).
Kyle Pitts's sure-handedness have diminished this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 62.0% to 58.0%.
The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has surrendered the 10th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (67.7%) vs. TEs this year (67.7%).
The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers rank as the 10th-best LB corps in the league this year in pass coverage.

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