Kyle Pitts Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Kyle Pitts

NFL · Player Props

Kyle Pitts

TE · Atlanta Falcons

Receiving TD

Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 7:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Kyle Pitts Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+274/-465).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +323 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +274.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Carolina Panthers defense this year: 8th-most in football.
Kyle Pitts has been a big part of his team's passing attack near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 18.8% this year, which places him in the 90th percentile among tight ends.
Kyle Pitts's 58.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably higher this year than it was last year at 49.9.
The Carolina Panthers pass defense has yielded the 2nd-highest Completion% in football (83.9%) to tight ends this year (83.9%).

Favors Under

The Falcons are a 4.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 123.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have run the 2nd-least plays in football this year, totaling just 52.3 plays per game.
Kyle Pitts has accrued quite a few less air yards this season (60.0 per game) than he did last season (70.0 per game).
Kyle Pitts's ball-catching skills have tailed off this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 62.0% to 55.6%.

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