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Kyle Pitts

Kyle Pitts Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 7

Cincinnati Bengals vs Atlanta Falcons

Kyle Pitts Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+226/-362).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +289 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +226.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Falcons are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.

Opposing offenses have averaged 41.0 pass attempts per game versus the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL.

THE BLITZ projects Kyle Pitts to be a more important option in his team's passing game near the end zone this week (19.3% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (13.3% in games he has played).

Kyle Pitts has posted a monstrous 68.0 air yards per game this year: 98th percentile among TEs.

Kyle Pitts's 57.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this season than it was last season at 49.9.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons offense to be the 8th-slowest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 29.39 seconds per play.

Kyle Pitts's sure-handedness have tailed off this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 62.0% to 50.6%.

The Cincinnati Bengals defense has allowed the 7th-least touchdowns through the air in the NFL to tight ends: 0.17 per game this year.

The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers profile as the 6th-best group of LBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

The Atlanta Falcons O-line has afforded their QB a measly 2.41 seconds before getting pressured (8th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all air attack stats across the board.

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