Kyle Pitts Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Kyle Pitts

NFL · Player Props

Kyle Pitts

TE · Atlanta Falcons

Receiving TD

Atlanta Falcons vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM EST

Analysis

Kyle Pitts Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+295/-518).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +309 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +295.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Falcons are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Kyle Pitts to be much more involved in his offense's pass game near the goal line this week (19.6% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (7.7% in games he has played).
Kyle Pitts has notched significantly more air yards this year (80.0 per game) than he did last year (70.0 per game).
Kyle Pitts's 51.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in football: 99th percentile for TEs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Falcons to call the 4th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have run the 4th-least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 54.2 plays per game.
Kyle Pitts's sure-handedness have diminished this year, with his Completion% falling off from 62.0% to 44.1%.
Kyle Pitts grades out in the 1st percentile among tight ends when it comes to catching touchdowns this year, averaging just 0.00 per game.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has conceded the 9th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (64.8%) vs. TEs this year (64.8%).

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