Kyle Pitts Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Kyle Pitts

NFL · Player Props

Kyle Pitts

TE · Atlanta Falcons

Receiving TD

Atlanta Falcons vs Cleveland Browns · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 4:45 PM UTC

Analysis

Kyle Pitts Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+198/-295).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -286 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -295.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Kyle Pitts to be a more important option in his offense's pass attack near the goal line this week (21.6% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (10.0% in games he has played).
Kyle Pitts has accumulated a whopping 73.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 98th percentile among TEs.
Kyle Pitts's 51.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the league: 98th percentile for TEs.
The Cleveland Browns pass defense has yielded the 10th-highest Completion% in the league (73.5%) vs. TEs since the start of last season (73.5%).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Falcons to call the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have called the 2nd-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a mere 55.1 plays per game.
The Atlanta Falcons O-line ranks as the 5th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
Kyle Pitts's possession skills have tailed off this season, with his Completion% falling off from 62.0% to 48.6%.
Kyle Pitts grades out in the 23rd percentile among tight ends when it comes to catching touchdowns since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 0.05 per game.

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