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Kyle Pitts

Kyle Pitts Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 4

Atlanta Falcons vs Cleveland Browns

Kyle Pitts Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+198/-295).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -286 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -295.
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
  • THE BLITZ projects Kyle Pitts to be a more important option in his offense's pass attack near the goal line this week (21.6% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (10.0% in games he has played).
  • Kyle Pitts has accumulated a whopping 73.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 98th percentile among TEs.
  • Kyle Pitts's 51.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the league: 98th percentile for TEs.
  • The Cleveland Browns pass defense has yielded the 10th-highest Completion% in the league (73.5%) vs. TEs since the start of last season (73.5%).

  • THE BLITZ projects the Falcons to call the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • The Atlanta Falcons have called the 2nd-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a mere 55.1 plays per game.
  • The Atlanta Falcons O-line ranks as the 5th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
  • Kyle Pitts's possession skills have tailed off this season, with his Completion% falling off from 62.0% to 48.6%.
  • Kyle Pitts grades out in the 23rd percentile among tight ends when it comes to catching touchdowns since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 0.05 per game.

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