Kyle Pitts Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Kyle Pitts

TE · Atlanta Falcons

Receiving TD

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

Kyle Pitts Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+207/-311).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +213 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +207.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Falcons are a 5.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Kyle Pitts to be a more integral piece of his team's air attack near the end zone this week (23.1% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (17.0% in games he has played).
Kyle Pitts has compiled a whopping 70.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 97th percentile among tight ends.
Kyle Pitts's 49.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in football: 97th percentile for tight ends.

Favors Under

The Atlanta Falcons have run the 2nd-least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 58.5 plays per game.
The Atlanta Falcons offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
Kyle Pitts has been among the most hard-handed receivers in the league among TEs, completing just 62.1% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 11th percentile.
Kyle Pitts ranks in the 24th percentile among TEs as it relates to catching TDs since the start of last season, averaging just 0.06 per game.
The New Orleans Saints pass defense has surrendered the 3rd-lowest Completion% in football (64%) to tight ends since the start of last season (64.0%).