Kyle Juszczyk Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

NFL · Player Props

Kyle Juszczyk

FB · San Francisco 49ers

Receiving Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 11, 2023 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Kyle Juszczyk Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Seattle Seahawks defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, inducing opposing teams to attempt the 7th-most passes in football (38.5 per game) this year.
In regards to air yards, Kyle Juszczyk grades out in the towering 91st percentile among running backs this year, averaging a monstrous 3.0 per game. (due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more impressive than it appears since most RBs wind up with negative air yards).
Kyle Juszczyk's 90.7% Adjusted Catch Rate this season marks a substantial gain in his receiving ability over last season's 86.3% mark.
With a fantastic 9.5 adjusted yards per target (91st percentile) this year, Kyle Juszczyk places among the best pass-catching RBs in the league.
This year, the feeble Seahawks defense has been gouged for a colossal 44.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing RBs: the 4th-worst in the league.

Favors Under

An extreme rushing game script is suggested by the 49ers being an enormous 14.5-point favorite in this week's game.
Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the San Francisco 49ers to pass on 50.5% of their opportunities: the 3rd-lowest clip on the slate this week.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is anticipated by the projection model to have only 125.9 plays on offense called: the 2nd-fewest on the slate this week.
The San Francisco 49ers have called the 2nd-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 53.6 plays per game.
When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the importance it has on all air attack stats), the O-line of the San Francisco 49ers grades out as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year.