Kyle Allen Pass Attempts - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Kyle Allen

NFL · Player Props

Kyle Allen

QB · Houston Texans

Pass Attempts

Miami Dolphins vs Houston Texans · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Kyle Allen Pass Attempts Prop is currently Over/Under 33.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 33.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 33.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans will be rolling with backup quarterback Kyle Allen in this week's game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 1.7% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Texans are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 8th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 63.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 36.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Texans to call the 2nd-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.3 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Houston Texans have called the 5th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a lowly 54.4 plays per game.
The Houston Texans have risked going for it on 4th down just 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.

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