K.J. Osborn Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

K.J. Osborn

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receptions

New Orleans Saints vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 4:15 PM UTC

Analysis

K.J. Osborn Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+175/-240).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -200 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -240.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.6% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 7th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 63.9% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 134.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
K.J. Osborn's ball-catching skills have improved this year, with his Completion% increasing from 67.0% to 71.7%.
The New Orleans Saints defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.55 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 4th-most sluggish in the NFL since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 4-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The Minnesota Vikings have played in the 4th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which should mean reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing attack effectiveness when facing windier conditions in this game.
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line grades out as the 5th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
The New Orleans Saints linebackers rank as the 4th-best collection of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.