K.J. Osborn Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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K.J. Osborn

NFL · Player Props

K.J. Osborn

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 7:31 PM EST

Analysis

K.J. Osborn Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 34.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 35.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 34.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Vikings are a 3.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Vikings to pass on 67.9% of their downs: the highest rate among all teams this week.
The projections expect this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.2 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
K.J. Osborn has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this year (93.3% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (81.2%).

Favors Under

The Vikings have called the 7th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling just 54.5 plays per game.
K.J. Osborn's 50.4% Adjusted Completion% this season indicates a a noteable decline in his pass-catching skills over last season's 69.8% rate.
The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has yielded the 4th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (58%) versus wideouts this year (58.0%).
This year, the daunting Kansas City Chiefs defense has allowed the 4th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing WRs: a mere 6.7 yards.
When it comes to cornerbacks in pass coverage, Kansas City's unit has been very good this year, profiling as the 8th-best in the NFL.

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