K.J. Hamler Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

reorder

NFL · Player Props

K.J. Hamler

WR · Denver Broncos

Receptions

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Denver Broncos · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 1:16 PM UTC

Analysis

K.J. Hamler Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-132/+102).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +108 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.1% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 132.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Denver Broncos have called the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 61.0 plays per game.
The Jacksonville Jaguars safeties grade out as the 7th-worst collection of safeties in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Denver Broncos O-line has afforded their QB 2.68 seconds before the pass (6th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all air attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
K.J. Hamler has been among the bottom pass-catching WRs this year, averaging a measly 1.0 receptions per game while checking in at the 16th percentile among wideouts.
K.J. Hamler has been among the least sure-handed receivers in football, hauling in a measly 40.7% of balls thrown his way this year, grading out in the 12th percentile among wideouts
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has surrendered the 7th-lowest Completion% in football (63.2%) to wideouts this year (63.2%).
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-fastest in the NFL since the start of last season.