K.J. Hamler Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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K.J. Hamler

NFL · Player Props

K.J. Hamler

WR · Denver Broncos

Receptions

Seattle Seahawks vs Denver Broncos · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 12, 2022 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

K.J. Hamler Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-163/+121).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -143 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -163.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.5% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Seattle Seahawks defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in the league.
The Seattle Seahawks safeties project as the 4th-worst group of safeties in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
The Denver Broncos offensive line has given their quarterback 2.68 seconds before the pass (6th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all pass game statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Broncos are a 6.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Denver Broncos have called the 6th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling just 60.5 plays per game.
The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a measly 3.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in football). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.

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