Kirk Cousins TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Kirk Cousins

QB · Las Vegas Raiders

TD Passes

Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 4, 2026 8:32 PM EST

Analysis

Kirk Cousins TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+113/-144).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +123 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +113.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game's spread implies a passing game script for the Raiders, who are -5-point underdogs.
Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Raiders to pass on 61.7% of their chances: the 3rd-highest frequency among all teams this week.
The leading projections forecast this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 128.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may slide.
Our trusted projections expect Kirk Cousins to throw 37.7 passes in this game, on balance: the 4th-most out of all quarterbacks.

Favors Under

The Raiders have called the 4th-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 53.0 plays per game.
The Raiders offensive line ranks as the 7th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all air attack stats across the board.
The Chiefs defense has given up the 3rd-fewest touchdowns through the air in football: 1.00 per game since the start of last season.
As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Kansas City's unit has been tremendous since the start of last season, grading out as the 6th-best in football.