Kirk Cousins TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Kirk Cousins

QB · Las Vegas Raiders

TD Passes

Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 2, 2026

Updated Sep 20, 2026 3:17 PM EST

Analysis

Kirk Cousins TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-250/+208).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ 0 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +208.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Raiders are a big 7-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
The predictive model expects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 6th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 60.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Still weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being predicted in this game) generally correlate with better passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased air volume, and lower rush volume.
In this week's game, Kirk Cousins is forecasted by the projection model to average the 10th-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 35.1.
When it comes to linebackers in pass coverage, Los Angeles's collection of LBs has been terrible since the start of last season, profiling as the 2nd-worst in the league.

Favors Under

Right now, the 5th-least pass-heavy team in the NFL near the end zone (53.7% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Las Vegas Raiders.
The projections expect the Raiders to run the 7th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.3 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The 4th-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Raiders since the start of last season (a mere 52.8 per game on average).
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 29.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Chargers defense since the start of last season: 6th-fewest in football.
When talking about protecting the passer (and the ramifications it has on all pass game statistics), the offensive line of the Las Vegas Raiders grades out as the 7th-worst in the league since the start of last season.