Kirk Cousins TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Kirk Cousins

QB · Atlanta Falcons

TD Passes

Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 5, 2024

Updated Oct 3, 2024 8:01 PM EST

Analysis

Kirk Cousins TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +110 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Falcons are projected by the projection model to run 64.2 offensive plays in this game: the 7th-most on the slate this week.
The pass games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may slide.
This week, Kirk Cousins is projected by our trusted projection set to have the 7th-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 35.0.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.2 pass attempts per game versus the Buccaneers defense this year: 5th-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

This week's spread suggests a running game script for the Falcons, who are favored by 3 points.
The Atlanta Falcons have run the 3rd-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging just 50.2 plays per game.
When it comes to pass-blocking (and the importance it has on all passing attack stats), the offensive line of the Falcons ranks as the 5th-worst in football this year.
Kirk Cousins's 65.6% Adjusted Completion% this season reflects a meaningful decrease in his passing precision over last season's 68.6% figure.
This year, the stout Buccaneers defense has given up a paltry 0.25 passing TDs per game to opposing teams: the lowest rate in the league.