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Kirk Cousins

Kirk Cousins TD Passes
Player Prop Week 4

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints

Kirk Cousins TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+120/-150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -145 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -150.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Atlanta Falcons offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.23 seconds per play.

The passing games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may suffer.

Kirk Cousins has attempted 37.2 throws per game since the start of last season, grading out in the 95th percentile when it comes to QBs.

When it comes to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all pass attack statistics), the offensive line of the Atlanta Falcons ranks as the 9th-best in the league since the start of last season.

With a stellar rate of 2.00 per game (100th percentile), Kirk Cousins ranks as one of the best touchdown passers in football since the start of last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 4-point advantage, the Falcons are favored in this game, implying more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach.

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Falcons to pass on 55.7% of their opportunities: the 10th-lowest clip on the slate this week.

Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 2nd-lowest clip in the NFL versus the Saints defense since the start of last season (64.3% Adjusted Completion%).

Since the start of last season, the imposing Saints defense has yielded a paltry 1.15 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing teams: the 6th-best rate in the league.

As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, New Orleans's unit has been tremendous since the start of last season, grading out as the 6th-best in the league.

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