Kirk Cousins TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Kirk Cousins

NFL · Player Props

Kirk Cousins

QB · Atlanta Falcons

TD Passes

Denver Broncos vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 11, 2024

Updated Nov 18, 2024 12:17 AM EST

Analysis

Kirk Cousins TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+100/-129).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +102 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.0 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.
The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (2-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while ground volume may go down.
The leading projections forecast Kirk Cousins to throw 35.7 passes in this week's game, on average: the 8th-most out of all QBs.
Opposing offenses have averaged 35.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Broncos defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL.
Kirk Cousins has been one of the leading TD throwers in football this year, averaging an excellent 1.70 per game while ranking in the 82nd percentile.

Favors Under

Right now, the 7th-least pass-focused offense in the league near the end zone (52.0% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Falcons.
The Atlanta Falcons offensive line ranks as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all pass game stats across the board.
This year, the stout Denver Broncos defense has conceded a measly 1.20 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing QBs: the 10th-lowest rate in the league.
When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Denver's group of safeties has been great this year, ranking as the 5th-best in football.

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