Kirk Cousins Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Kirk Cousins

QB · Minnesota Vikings

Rushing Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Kirk Cousins Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-115/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Vikings are an enormous 7.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 26.83 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Kirk Cousins to be a more important option in his team's run game this week (7.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (0.0% in games he has played).
The Minnesota Vikings O-line profiles as the 8th-best in the NFL this year at blocking for rushers.
Kirk Cousins's ground effectiveness (6.90 yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL since the start of last season (88th percentile among quarterbacks).

Favors Under

The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.1% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 11th-least run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 38.5% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Kirk Cousins to total 1.8 rush attempts this week, on average: the 2nd-least of all quarterbacks.
The Minnesota Vikings have faced a stacked the box on 20.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.