Kirk Cousins Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

NFL · Player Props

Kirk Cousins

QB · Minnesota Vikings

Passing Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 1, 2023 8:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Kirk Cousins Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 261.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 266.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 261.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 6.2% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Vikings are a 3-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 64.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 26.75 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Kirk Cousins to attempt 39.0 passes this week, on average: the 5th-most of all quarterbacks.

Favors Under

Opposing QBs have averaged 29.5 pass attempts per game versus the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 2nd-least in football.
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line grades out as the 7th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all passing game stats across the board.
Opposing QBs have thrown for the 3rd-least yards in the NFL (just 210.0 per game) vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year.
The Green Bay Packers have stacked the box versus opponents on just 8.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Minnesota Vikings have gone no-huddle on a mere 4.5% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (9th-least in the league). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.