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Khalil Shakir Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-160/+124).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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At the present time, the 3rd-most pass-focused offense in the league (67.7% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Bills.Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game against the Buccaneers defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.When talking about protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all passing offense statistics), the offensive line of the Buffalo Bills grades out as the 4th-best in the NFL this year.This year, the shaky Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has been torched for a staggering 69.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wideouts: the 9th-worst rate in football.When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Tampa Bay's unit has been atrocious this year, profiling as the 3rd-worst in the league.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 9.5-point advantage, the Bills are a huge favorite in this game, implying much more of a focus on rushing than their typical approach.Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projection model to see just 125.9 plays on offense called: the 5th-fewest among all games this week.With an exceptional 18.4% Route% (19th percentile) this year, Khalil Shakir places among the wide receivers with the biggest workloads in football.Khalil Shakir comes in as one of the weakest pass-catching WRs this year, averaging a lowly 1.3 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 20th percentile when it comes to WRs.
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