Khalil Shakir Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Khalil Shakir

NFL · Player Props

Khalil Shakir

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 11, 2023 4:01 AM EST

Analysis

Khalil Shakir Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +130 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Buffalo Bills to pass on 61.2% of their plays: the 5th-highest frequency among all teams this week.
Khalil Shakir has run fewer routes this season (42.3% Route Participation Rate in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (25.7%).
When talking about protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all pass game stats), the offensive line of the Buffalo Bills grades out as the 9th-best in the NFL this year.
Khalil Shakir's receiving talent has been refined this year, compiling 2.3 adjusted receptions vs a measly 1.0 last year.
With a fantastic 83.9% Adjusted Completion% (95th percentile) this year, Khalil Shakir places as one of the best possession receivers in football among wide receivers.

Favors Under

To the extent of a defense's effect on pace, at 28.97 seconds per play, the model projects the Bills as the slowest in the league (adjusted for context) right now.
Opposing QBs teams have been unwilling to rely on the passing game too much against the Chiefs, averaging the 4th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 32.0 per game) this year.

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