Khalil Shakir Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Khalil Shakir

NFL · Player Props

Khalil Shakir

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 14, 2023 12:16 AM EST

Analysis

Khalil Shakir Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+120/-156).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +139 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Bills to be the 3rd-most pass-focused offense in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 68.9% pass rate.
While Khalil Shakir has been responsible for 6.3% of his offense's targets in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be a more integral piece of Buffalo's offense in this week's game at 12.3%.
As it relates to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack statistics), the offensive line of the Buffalo Bills ranks as the 6th-best in football this year.
Khalil Shakir's 2.3 adjusted catches per game this year shows a significant improvement in his pass-catching talent over last year's 1.0 figure.
With a stellar 95.3% Adjusted Completion% (97th percentile) this year, Khalil Shakir places among the most reliable receivers in the NFL among wide receivers.

Favors Under

The Bills are a giant 7.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Buffalo Bills are forecasted by the predictive model to call only 61.0 total plays in this game: the 2nd-lowest number among all teams this week.
The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 34.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Denver Broncos defense this year: fewest in football.

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