Khalil Shakir Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Khalil Shakir

NFL · Player Props

Khalil Shakir

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Khalil Shakir Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+122/-164).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -145 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -164.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.3% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the most pass-centric offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 71.0% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 137.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have run the 9th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a whopping 63.5 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 40.5 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 6th-most in football.

Favors Under

The Bills are a giant 14-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
The weather forecast calls for 19-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
The Buffalo Bills O-line grades out as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all pass game stats across the board.
The Pittsburgh Steelers safeties project as the 2nd-best unit in football this year in pass coverage.
The Buffalo Bills have faced a stacked the box on just 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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