Khalil Shakir Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Khalil Shakir

NFL · Player Props

Khalil Shakir

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 11, 2023 12:17 AM UTC

Analysis

Khalil Shakir Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 31.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 40.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 31.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Buffalo Bills to pass on 61.2% of their plays: the 5th-highest frequency among all teams this week.
Khalil Shakir has run fewer routes this season (42.3% Route Participation Rate in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (25.7%).
After accumulating 14.0 air yards per game last season, Khalil Shakir has been rising this season, now pacing 24.0 per game.
When talking about protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all pass game stats), the offensive line of the Buffalo Bills grades out as the 9th-best in the NFL this year.
Khalil Shakir has posted many more adjusted receiving yards per game (35.0) this year than he did last year (17.0).

Favors Under

To the extent of a defense's effect on pace, at 28.97 seconds per play, the model projects the Bills as the slowest in the league (adjusted for context) right now.
Opposing QBs teams have been unwilling to rely on the passing game too much against the Chiefs, averaging the 4th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 32.0 per game) this year.
The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has shown good efficiency vs. wide receivers this year, conceding 7.75 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 10th-fewest in the league.

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