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Khalil Shakir

Khalil Shakir Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 19

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins

 
 
 
Khalil Shakir Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-137/+104).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 18.5 @ -137.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.3% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
  • THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-centric offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 70.0% pass rate.
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-least plays run on the slate this week at 128.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 4th-most in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Bills are a big 13.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
  • The Buffalo Bills have called the 4th-least plays in football this year, totaling a measly 54.8 plays per game.
  • Khalil Shakir has accrued a mere 14.0 air yards per game this year: just 24th percentile among WRs.
  • Khalil Shakir's 8.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the worst in the league: 13th percentile for WRs.
  • The Buffalo Bills offensive line ranks as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing game stats across the board.

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