Khalil Herbert Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Khalil Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Khalil Herbert

RB · Atlanta Falcons

Touchdowns

Atlanta Falcons vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 7, 2026

Updated Oct 25, 2026 1:07 PM EST

Analysis

Khalil Herbert Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+656/-745).

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 38.7 pass attempts per game versus the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 7th-most in football.
When talking about protecting the passer (and the strong effect it has on all passing offense metrics), the O-line of the Atlanta Falcons profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year.
This year, the anemic 49ers defense has been gouged for a colossal 0.33 receiving TDs per game to opposing RBs: the 4th-largest rate in the league.
This year, the formidable 49ers run defense has allowed a feeble 0.50 rushing TDs per game to opposing teams: the 4th-lowest rate in the league.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Falcons to be the 3rd-least pass-focused offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 57.5% pass rate.
Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Atlanta Falcons are predicted by our trusted projection set to run only 62.4 total plays in this game: the 6th-lowest number on the slate this week.
The Falcons have called the 7th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 55.2 plays per game.

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