Khalil Herbert Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Khalil Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Khalil Herbert

RB · Chicago Bears

Rushing Yards

Cleveland Browns vs Chicago Bears · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Khalil Herbert Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-105/-125).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Chicago Bears as the 2nd-most run-focused team among all teams this week with a 51.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
When talking about blocking for ball-carriers (and the impact it has on all ground game metrics), the offensive line of the Chicago Bears ranks as the 9th-best in football last year.
Khalil Herbert is positioned as one of the best RBs in football at generating extra running yardage, averaging a remarkable 3.13 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 82nd percentile.
The Browns linebackers profile as the 4th-worst collection of LBs in the NFL this year when it comes to defending the run.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Bears offense to be the 6th-slowest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 28.87 seconds per play.
While Khalil Herbert has received 34.7% of his offense's run game usage in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a less important option in Chicago's run game in this contest at 16.3%.
Khalil Herbert's 40.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this season marks a remarkable diminishment in his rushing prowess over last season's 53.0 figure.
Khalil Herbert's rushing efficiency has declined this year, notching a mere 4.22 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a 5.36 figure last year.
This year, the imposing Browns run defense has given up a mere 100.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing teams: the 10th-best in the league.

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