Khalil Herbert Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Khalil Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Khalil Herbert

RB · Chicago Bears

Rushing Yards

Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Khalil Herbert Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 53.5 (-123/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 49.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 53.5 @ -123.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the most run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 55.0% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Khalil Herbert to garner 11.8 rush attempts in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 77th percentile among RBs.
The Chicago Bears offensive line profiles as the 9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season at opening holes for rushers.
Khalil Herbert's rushing efficiency (5.36 yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league since the start of last season (100th percentile among RBs).
Khalil Herbert has been among the best RBs in the NFL at grinding out extra ground yardage, averaging a terrific 3.67 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while grading out in the 94th percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 118.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have run the least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling just 52.9 plays per game.

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