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Khalil Herbert

Khalil Herbert Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 9

Chicago Bears vs Miami Dolphins

Khalil Herbert Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+234/-369).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +305 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +234.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 4th-most run-centric team in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 49.9% red zone run rate.

The Chicago Bears offensive line ranks as the 9th-best in football this year at opening holes for runners.

Khalil Herbert has run for 0.50 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest marks in the league among RBs (85th percentile).

Opposing teams have rushed for the 8th-most touchdowns in the NFL (1.12 per game) versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year.

The Miami Dolphins defensive tackles profile as the 2nd-worst DT corps in the NFL this year in regard to defending the run.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Bears are an enormous 9.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run out of all the games this week at 123.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Chicago Bears have run the 5th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 54.8 plays per game.

THE BLITZ projects Khalil Herbert to be a much smaller piece of his team's rushing attack near the goal line this week (26.6% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (42.9% in games he has played).

The Miami Dolphins have stacked the box against opponents on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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