Khalil Herbert Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Khalil Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Khalil Herbert

RB · Chicago Bears

Rushing TD

Chicago Bears vs Washington Commanders · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 13, 2022 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Khalil Herbert Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+357/-703).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +369 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +357.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the most run-centric offense in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 50.1% red zone run rate.
Khalil Herbert has rushed for 0.60 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the highest figures in the league among running backs (96th percentile).
The Chicago Bears have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 14.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Chicago Bears have gone for it on 4th down 27.3% of the time since the start of last season (3rd-most in the NFL), which generally means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have called the least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 49.2 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Khalil Herbert to be a much smaller piece of his offense's rushing attack near the goal line this week (21.4% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (55.9% in games he has played).
Opposing teams have run for the 7th-least touchdowns in the league (0.60 per game) vs. the Washington Commanders defense this year.
The Washington Commanders linebackers project as the 7th-best collection of LBs in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.

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