Khalil Herbert Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Khalil Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Khalil Herbert

RB · Chicago Bears

Receptions

Washington Commanders vs Chicago Bears · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 6, 2023 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Khalil Herbert Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-185/+155).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +160 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +155.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a 6-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
In this week's contest, Khalil Herbert is expected by the predictive model to finish in the 81st percentile among RBs with 3.4 targets.
Khalil Herbert has been a more integral piece of his offense's passing attack this year (11.6% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (4.3%).
Khalil Herbert's 2.4 adjusted receptions per game this season indicates a a noteworthy gain in his pass-catching skills over last season's 0.7 rate.
As it relates to linebackers in pass coverage, Washington's unit has been awful this year, ranking as the 4th-worst in football.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Chicago Bears as the 2nd-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 51.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect the Bears to run the 3rd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 60.7 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Bears have called the 10th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 55.8 plays per game.
Khalil Herbert's ball-catching skills have declined this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate decreasing from 81.8% to 75.2%.
The Washington Commanders pass defense has given up the 9th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (79.6%) vs. running backs since the start of last season (79.6%).

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