Khalil Herbert Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Khalil Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Khalil Herbert

RB · Chicago Bears

Receptions

Chicago Bears vs Denver Broncos · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 7:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Khalil Herbert Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -100 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
When it comes to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Denver's unit has been terrible since the start of last season, projecting as the worst in football.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Chicago Bears as the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 50.2% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The model projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 121.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Bears have called the fewest plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 52.9 plays per game.
Khalil Herbert has been among the worst pass-game running backs since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 0.9 receptions per game while ranking in the 22nd percentile among RBs.
Khalil Herbert's ball-catching skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 81.8% to 74.0%.

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