Khalil Herbert Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Khalil Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Khalil Herbert

RB · Chicago Bears

Receptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Chicago Bears · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 11:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Khalil Herbert Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-133/-103).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +116 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -103.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are an enormous 12.5-point underdog in this game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in the NFL.
Khalil Herbert has run a route on 28.3% of his offense's dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking him in the 77th percentile among running backs.
The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has allowed the highest Completion% in the league (90.9%) vs. running backs since the start of last season (90.9%).
The Kansas City Chiefs linebackers grade out as the 9th-worst group of LBs in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 6th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 53.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 3rd-slowest paced defense in football (in a neutral context) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 29.10 seconds per play.
Khalil Herbert has been among the weakest RBs in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging just 0.9 receptions per game while grading out in the 24th percentile among running backs.
Khalil Herbert's ball-catching skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% falling off from 81.8% to 64.7%.

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