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Khalil Herbert
NFL · Player Props
Khalil Herbert
RB · Chicago Bears
Receptions
Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions · Week 14, 2023 Updated Dec 11, 2023 4:01 AM UTC
NFL Props Khalil Herbert Receptions

Khalil Herbert Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-220/+170).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -215 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +170.

Favors Over
  • The Bears are a 3-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
  • Khalil Herbert's 16.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this year than it was last year at 5.5.
  • Khalil Herbert's play as a receiver has improved this season, totaling 2.0 adjusted receptions compared to a mere 0.7 last season.
  • The Lions safeties rank as the 4th-worst group of safeties in football this year in defending pass-catchers.
Favors Under
  • Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Bears to pass on 48.2% of their chances: the 2nd-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
  • Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Bears are predicted by the predictive model to call only 61.8 offensive plays in this contest: the lowest number among all teams this week.
  • The Chicago Bears offensive line grades out as the 9th-worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
  • Khalil Herbert's 72.4% Adjusted Catch Rate this season illustrates a material diminishment in his pass-catching skills over last season's 81.8% figure.
  • The Detroit Lions pass defense has surrendered the 2nd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (70.3%) versus running backs this year (70.3%).
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