Khalil Herbert Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Khalil Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Khalil Herbert

RB · Chicago Bears

Carries

Washington Commanders vs Chicago Bears · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 5, 2023 11:21 PM EST

Analysis

Khalil Herbert Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-122/-108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ +102 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -122.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Bears to run on 48.6% of their downs: the 2nd-highest frequency among all teams this week.
This week, Khalil Herbert is expected by the model to position himself in the 77th percentile when it comes to RBs with 12.5 rush attempts.
After accounting for 30.2% of his team's carries last year, Khalil Herbert has been called on more in the running game this year, currently accounting for 43.3%.
The Bears offensive line ranks as the 9th-best in the NFL last year at blocking for the run game.
The Washington Commanders linebackers rank as the 3rd-worst group of LBs in the NFL this year when it comes to defending the run.

Favors Under

The Bears are a 6-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
The projections expect the Bears to run the 3rd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 60.7 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Bears have called the 10th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 55.8 plays per game.

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