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Khalil Herbert

Khalil Herbert Carries
Player Prop Week 9

Chicago Bears vs Miami Dolphins

Khalil Herbert Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-138/+104).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 9.5 @ -138.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Chicago Bears will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 7.4% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the most run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 58.5% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The weatherman calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.

The Chicago Bears offensive line ranks as the 9th-best in football this year at opening holes for runners.

The Miami Dolphins defensive tackles profile as the 2nd-worst DT corps in the NFL this year in regard to defending the run.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Bears are an enormous 9.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run out of all the games this week at 123.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Chicago Bears have run the 5th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 54.8 plays per game.

THE BLITZ projects Khalil Herbert to be a much smaller part of his team's rushing attack this week (26.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (37.3% in games he has played).

The Miami Dolphins have stacked the box against opponents on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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