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KhaDarel Hodge Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+135/-180).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -145 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -180.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The projections expect this game to have the 3rd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 131.2 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.The Falcons have run the 7th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 62.0 plays per game.The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may slide.Khadarel Hodge has been used less as a potential target this season (27.1% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (16.1%).Khadarel Hodge is positioned as one of the most reliable receivers in football, catching an excellent 72.3% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, grading out in the 76th percentile among wide receivers.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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This week's spread indicates a rushing game script for the Falcons, who are favored by 3.5 points.The model projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 4th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 53.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Khadarel Hodge comes in as one of the worst pass-catching WRs this year, averaging just 1.3 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 19th percentile among WRs.As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Minnesota's collection of safeties has been outstanding this year, projecting as the 3rd-best in the league.
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