KhaDarel Hodge Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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KhaDarel Hodge

NFL · Player Props

KhaDarel Hodge

WR · Atlanta Falcons

Receiving Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Cleveland Browns · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 3, 2022 3:00 AM UTC

Analysis

KhaDarel Hodge Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-100/-131).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 12.5 @ -112 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ -131.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Atlanta Falcons have faced a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Atlanta Falcons have used some form of misdirection on 53.2% of their play-calls since the start of last season (7th-most in the NFL), which masks an offenses true intentions and may make them more effective.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 7th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 54.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have called the 2nd-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a mere 55.1 plays per game.
KhaDarel Hodge has run a route on 29.0% of his team's passing plays since the start of last season, putting him in the 20th percentile among wide receivers.
The Atlanta Falcons O-line ranks as the 5th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
The Cleveland Browns pass defense has conceded the 10th-lowest Completion% in the league (64.5%) versus WRs since the start of last season (64.5%).

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