Keon Coleman Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Keon Coleman

NFL · Player Props

Keon Coleman

WR · Buffalo Bills

Touchdowns

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 4, 2026 7:42 PM EST

Analysis

Keon Coleman Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+495/-520).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bills have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to mean higher pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved offense results when facing more favorable weather this week.
When it comes to protecting the passer (and the positive impact it has on all passing game statistics), the O-line of the Bills profiles as the 5th-best in football since the start of last season.
The Patriots pass defense has allowed the 6th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (67.5%) versus wideouts since the start of last season (67.5%).
Since the start of last season, the formidable Patriots run defense has given up a mere 0.65 TDs on the ground per game to the opposing side: the 5th-smallest rate in the NFL.

Favors Under

This week's line implies a rushing game script for the Bills, who are favored by 6.5 points.
The leading projections forecast the Bills to be the 4th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 53.9% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The model projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 9th-most run-oriented offense in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 46.3% red zone run rate.
The model projects this game to see the 5th-fewest plays run among all games this week at 125.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The New England defensive tackles project as the 5th-worst DT corps in the league since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.

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