Keon Coleman Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Keon Coleman

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 4, 2026 7:42 PM EST

Analysis

Keon Coleman Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-161/+134).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -161 before it was bet up to 9.5 @ -161.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bills have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to mean higher pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved offense results when facing more favorable weather this week.
When it comes to protecting the passer (and the positive impact it has on all passing game statistics), the O-line of the Bills profiles as the 5th-best in football since the start of last season.
The Patriots pass defense has allowed the 6th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (67.5%) versus wideouts since the start of last season (67.5%).

Favors Under

This week's line implies a rushing game script for the Bills, who are favored by 6.5 points.
The leading projections forecast the Bills to be the 4th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 53.9% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The model projects this game to see the 5th-fewest plays run among all games this week at 125.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
As it relates to cornerbacks in covering receivers, New England's collection of CBs has been phenomenal since the start of last season, projecting as the 7th-best in the league.