Kenny Pickett TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 17

NFL · Player Props

Kenny Pickett

QB · Pittsburgh Steelers

TD Passes

Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 2, 2023 1:16 AM EST

Analysis

Kenny Pickett TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.0 (-225/+163).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -233 before it was bet up to 1.0 @ -225.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 6th-most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 61.1 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the highest rate in the league vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year (75.3%).
The Baltimore Ravens have stacked the box against opponents on 18.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone no-huddle on 15.2% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-most in the NFL). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat production.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to call the 2nd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 61.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Baltimore Ravens defense has surrendered the 8th-least touchdowns through the air in the league: 1.20 per game this year.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line has allowed their QB just 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
The Baltimore Ravens defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 5th-fastest in football since the start of last season.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have utilized play action on a mere 18.5% of their passing plays since the start of last season (3rd-least in football), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.