Kenny Pickett TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 10

NFL · Player Props

Kenny Pickett

QB · Pittsburgh Steelers

TD Passes

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 14, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Kenny Pickett TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+185/-250).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -205 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -250.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 7th-most pass-oriented team in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 61.0% red zone pass rate.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offense has played at the 5th-quickest pace in the league (in a neutral context) this year, averaging 26.88 seconds per snap.
The New Orleans Saints cornerbacks profile as the 2nd-worst group of CBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The New Orleans Saints defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.55 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 4th-slowest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone no-huddle on 15.2% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-most in the league). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat production.

Favors Under

The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 33.3 pass attempts per game vs. the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 6th-least in football.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 4th-lowest level in the NFL against the New Orleans Saints defense this year (64.6%).
The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line has allowed their quarterback just 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.