Kenny Golladay Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Kenny Golladay

NFL · Player Props

Kenny Golladay

WR · New York Giants

Receptions

Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 24, 2022 9:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Kenny Golladay Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-118/-111).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -103 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -111.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Giants are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 135.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The New York Giants have run the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 61.6 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
The New York Giants have incorporated play action on 28.4% of their passing plays since the start of last season (10th-most in football), tricking the defense into thinking it's a run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants as the 6th-least pass-oriented team in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 57.2% pass rate.
Kenny Golladay's 16.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 50.8.
The New York Giants offensive line grades out as the 10th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Kenny Golladay's receiving skills have worsened this year, averaging a mere 0.8 yards per game compared to 2.7 last year.
Kenny Golladay's ball-catching skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 50.9% to 40.1%.

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