Kenneth Gainwell Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Kenneth Gainwell

RB · Philadelphia Eagles

Receptions

Philadelphia Eagles vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM UTC

Analysis

Kenneth Gainwell Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-155/+125).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 135.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Kenneth Gainwell's 16.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in the NFL: 84th percentile for running backs.
The Philadelphia Eagles offensive line ranks as the 3rd-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
The Philadelphia Eagles O-line has afforded their quarterback 2.90 seconds before the pass (best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
The Philadelphia Eagles have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a 6.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 44.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 32.3 pass attempts per game against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 8th-least in the NFL.
Kenneth Gainwell's sure-handedness have diminished this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 73.5% to 50.1%.