Kendrick Bourne Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Kendrick Bourne

WR · Arizona Cardinals

Touchdowns

San Francisco 49ers vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 3:22 PM EST

Analysis

Kendrick Bourne Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+685/-869).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ 0 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -869.

Key Factors

Favors Over

An extreme throwing game script is implied by the Cardinals being a huge -7.5-point underdog this week.
The projections expect the Arizona Cardinals as the 4th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 61.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The Arizona Cardinals have called the 7th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a staggering 59.2 plays per game.
While Kendrick Bourne has accounted for 3.2% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played since the start of last season, the predictive model expects him to be a much bigger part of Arizona's pass game near the goal line in this contest at 10.9%.
Kendrick Bourne's ball-catching skills have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Catch% increasing from 72.4% to 90.9%.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Cardinals are expected by the projections to run just 61.1 offensive plays in this contest: the 6th-fewest among all teams this week.
Arizona's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially too high (and running stats decreased) considering playing the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL. We figure to be able to expect some regression with windier weather this week.
The Arizona O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.
The receiving TD line reads "0" on the back of Kendrick Bourne's trading card since the start of last season.
The San Francisco 49ers safeties rank as the 4th-best group of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in defending receivers.