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Kendrick Bourne

Kendrick Bourne Receptions
Player Prop Week 4

Dallas Cowboys vs New England Patriots

Kendrick Bourne Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-160/+120).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Patriots are a giant 7-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.

The model projects the New England Patriots as the 7th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 62.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The projections expect this game to see the highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 135.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

Kendrick Bourne's 55.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 23.9.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Kendrick Bourne's ball-catching skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 74.8% to 59.6%.

The Cowboys pass defense has yielded the 6th-lowest Completion% in the league (63.5%) vs. wideouts since the start of last season (63.5%).

The Cowboys cornerbacks rank as the 2nd-best collection of CBs in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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