Kendrick Bourne Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Kendrick Bourne

NFL · Player Props

Kendrick Bourne

WR · New England Patriots

Receiving Yards

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 4:41 PM EST

Analysis

Kendrick Bourne Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 47.5 (+110/-145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 44.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 47.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots are a big 8.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
The predictive model expects the New England Patriots as the 8th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 61.0% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect the New England Patriots offense to be the 4th-quickest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 26.32 seconds per play.
The projections expect Kendrick Bourne to earn 7.2 targets in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 77th percentile among WRs.
Kendrick Bourne has been a more integral piece of his team's passing game this season (21.5% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (9.8%).

Favors Under

When talking about pass protection (and the effect it has on all pass game stats), the O-line of the Patriots ranks as the 10th-worst in the league this year.
Kendrick Bourne's 66.8% Adjusted Completion Rate this season conveys a significant reduction in his receiving proficiency over last season's 74.8% rate.
Kendrick Bourne's 8.1 adjusted yards per target this year marks a meaningful diminishment in his pass-catching skills over last year's 9.6 rate.
The Dolphins pass defense has excelled when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 3.84 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 10th-fewest in the NFL.
As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Miami's collection of safeties has been very good this year, ranking as the best in football.

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