Kendrick Bourne Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Kendrick Bourne

WR · New England Patriots

Receiving Yards

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 7:38 PM UTC

Analysis

Kendrick Bourne Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (+118/-163).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 29.5 @ -119 before it was bet down to 27.5 @ -163.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game against the Miami Dolphins defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in the league.
Kendrick Bourne has been among the most sure-handed receivers in the NFL, completing a stellar 82.3% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 98th percentile among wideouts.
Kendrick Bourne has been among the most efficient pass-catchers in the NFL, averaging a stellar 10.89 yards-per-target since the start of last season while grading out in the 99th percentile among wideouts.
Kendrick Bourne has been among the top wideouts in the league at picking up extra yardage, averaging a stellar 5.96 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while ranking in the 93rd percentile.

Favors Under

The Patriots rank as the 8th-least pass-centric team in the league (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 60.3% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the least total plays among all teams this week with 58.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots have called the 9th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a mere 60.7 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Kendrick Bourne to be much less involved in his offense's passing attack this week (8.3% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (13.3% in games he has played).
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has given up the 10th-lowest Completion% in the league (64.6%) versus WRs since the start of last season (64.6%).