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Kendrick Bourne

Kendrick Bourne Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 1

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots

 
 
 
Kendrick Bourne Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+337/-640).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -611 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -640.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Patriots are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game against the Miami Dolphins defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in the league.
  • Kendrick Bourne has been among the most sure-handed receivers in the NFL, completing a stellar 82.3% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 98th percentile among wideouts.
  • The New England Patriots have been faced with a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
  • The Miami Dolphins have stacked the box vs. opponents on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the least total plays among all teams this week with 58.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • The New England Patriots have called the 9th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a mere 60.7 plays per game.
  • The Miami Dolphins pass defense has given up the 10th-lowest Completion% in the league (64.6%) versus WRs since the start of last season (64.6%).
  • The Miami Dolphins defense has allowed the 8th-least passing TDs in the NFL to wide receivers: 0.82 per game since the start of last season.
  • The Miami Dolphins safeties grade out as the 5th-best collection of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.

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