Kendrick Bourne Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Kendrick Bourne

WR · New England Patriots

Receiving TD

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 7:38 PM UTC

Analysis

Kendrick Bourne Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+337/-640).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -611 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -640.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game against the Miami Dolphins defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in the league.
Kendrick Bourne has been among the most sure-handed receivers in the NFL, completing a stellar 82.3% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 98th percentile among wideouts.
The New England Patriots have been faced with a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Miami Dolphins have stacked the box vs. opponents on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the least total plays among all teams this week with 58.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots have called the 9th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a mere 60.7 plays per game.
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has given up the 10th-lowest Completion% in the league (64.6%) versus WRs since the start of last season (64.6%).
The Miami Dolphins defense has allowed the 8th-least passing TDs in the NFL to wide receivers: 0.82 per game since the start of last season.
The Miami Dolphins safeties grade out as the 5th-best collection of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.