Kendre Miller Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Kendre Miller

NFL · Player Props

Kendre Miller

RB · New Orleans Saints

Touchdowns

New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 5, 2026 8:17 PM EST

Analysis

Kendre Miller Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+279/-341).

Key Factors

Favors Over

With a 62.6% rate of throwing the ball in the red zone (context-neutralized) this year, the 6th-most pass-focused offense in football in this setting has been the Saints.
Our trusted projections expect this game to see the largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 136.0 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The Saints have called the 3rd-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a massive 60.6 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 4th-fewest TDs in the league (0.60 per game) versus the Atlanta Falcons defense since the start of last season.

Favors Under

Kendre Miller has been not been very involved his team's offense near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of just 0.0% this year, which places him in the 1st percentile when it comes to RBs.
Kendre Miller places in just the 22nd percentile among running back WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive involvement) with a poor 3.5 figure since the start of last season.
Kendre Miller grades out in the 1st percentile among RBs when it comes to catching TDs since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 0.00 per game.
The Falcons pass defense has allowed the 4th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (76%) versus RBs since the start of last season (76.0%).

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